U.S. Container Ports on Track to Shatter All-Time Import Record

U.S. container ports are barreling toward a new all-time volume record this month, and the driver isn’t holiday shopping — it’s tariff timing. According to a National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast covered by FreightWaves, retailers are frontloading imports ahead of expected tariff hikes set to hit as early as August.

NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said this year’s early peak season should run through July, as importers race to beat both higher tariffs and broader trade uncertainty. Part of that uncertainty traces back to the ongoing conflict in Iran, which Gold said is already rippling through supply chains and testing how much consumers can absorb before pulling back on spending.

Here’s the timing squeeze: the temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs enacted in February are set to expire July 24. But a new wave of tariffs tied to forced-labor concerns across 60 countries is expected as soon as August — giving shippers a narrow window to get freight in before costs rise again.

The numbers tell the story. U.S. ports handled 2.24 million TEUs in May, a 14.9% jump year-over-year and 10.1% above April. NRF estimates June came in even higher at 2.33 million TEUs (+18.7% y/y), pushing first-half 2026 volume to 12.77 million TEUs — up 2% from the same period last year.

July is projected to hit 2.47 million TEUs, a 3.3% increase that would break the previous monthly record of 2.4 million TEUs set in May 2022, during the post-pandemic import surge. After that, the forecast points to a cooldown: August down 4.5% to 2.22 million TEUs, September down 5.7% to 1.99 million TEUs, October down 3.8%, and November down 5.2% to 1.92 million TEUs.

It’s a notable shift from historical patterns. Port labor disputes and tariff volatility in recent years have effectively moved peak shipping season from its traditional October slot to the May–July window instead. For full-year context, 2025 imports totaled 25.4 million TEUs, essentially flat (-0.3%) compared to 2024.

Bottom line: Tariff deadlines — not consumer demand cycles — are now the biggest lever moving import volume. Expect more of this pattern as trade policy continues to shift on short notice.

Source: FreightWaves